Науково-дослідна лабораторія "Науки про Землю"
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Browsing Науково-дослідна лабораторія "Науки про Землю" by Author "Horoshkov, Stanislav"
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Item Ecological Assessment and Forecasting of Surface Water Conditions in the Dnipro River in Zaporizhzhia(2025) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Menshov, Oleksandr; Korniichuk, Yuliia; Horoshkov, Stanislav ; Maslov, DenysPurpose. To provide a comprehensive environmental assessment and forecast of the condition of surface waters of the Dnipro River within the Zaporizhzhia region, with a focus on the dynamics of key water quality indicators during the period 2013–2024. Special attention is given to anthropogenic factors, particularly the consequences of military actions and the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, which significantly altered the hydrological regime and impacted the ecological balance of the river. Methods. Systems analysis, statistical data processing methods, distribution analysis, and regression modeling were employed to assess retrospective dynamics and predict future trends. Results. Long-term monitoring data obtained from the Water Monitoring Laboratory of the Basin Water Resources Department of the Azov Sea Rivers were used. The primary focus was on evaluating six key water quality indicators: phosphates, ammonium, sulfate and chloride ions, biochemical oxygen demand over five days (BOD₅), and dissolved oxygen concentration, to assess the ecological state of the Dnipro River's surface waters in the Zaporizhzhia region, particularly in the drinking water intake area (DVS No. 1) in the upper reservoir of the Dnipro HPP. Phosphate and ammonium concentrations show periodic fluctuations driven by seasonal factors and fertilizer usage. Sulfate levels exhibit high variability of both natural and anthropogenic origin, while chloride concentrations remain relatively stable. Data on dissolved oxygen and BOD₅ indicate seasonal dynamics, which have been disrupted since 2023 due to the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. The analysis confirmed the river's capacity for partial self-recovery, particularly under reduced anthropogenic pressure during wartime. Regression models were developed for predictive assessment of pollution levels and environmental risks. Conclusions. The study identified key ecological problems in the Dnipro River, including organic and mineral pollution, disrupted hydrological regimes, and decreased oxygenation. The war-related destruction of hydrotechnical infrastructure exacerbated these issues. Despite this, the river demonstrated resilience through natural self-purification processes, especially as phosphate and ammonium loads declined. Restoration of ecological balance will require systemic monitoring, rehabilitation of water infrastructure, and regulation of pollutant sources. The developed models provide a basis for forecasting and managing surface water quality under both peacetime and post-war recovery scenarios.Item Ecological assessment and forecasting of surface water conditions in the Southern Bug River in the territory of Mykolaiv region(2025) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Menshov, Oleksandr; Nekos, Alla; Korniichuk, Yuliia; Horoshkov, Stanislav; Kochanov, EduardThe issue of water supply and water security has become more relevant in the territory of Ukraine under conditions of war. Taking into account that Ukraine has an extensive water infrastructure, which includes large multipurpose reservoirs, hydroe-lectric power station dams, cooling systems for nuclear power plants, and others, the impact of the war is already environmentally hazardous and catastrophic. That is why research into anthropogenic influence, including during military actions, is relevant for the Southern Bug River, which is an important strategic resource for the ecological, social, and economic development of the Mykolaiv region of Ukraine. The purpose of article. Assessment of anthropogenic and military impact on the surface waters of the Southern Bug River within the Mykolaiv region, which are used for drinking water supply, in order to forecast the development of the ecological situation and to form measures for its improvement at the stage of post-war recovery of the country. Research methods. Methods of comparison, computer-based statistical data processing using correlation analysis of the results, as well as modeling and forecasting using regression analysis, were applied. Research results. The paper presents the results of studies on the impact of anthropogenic and military pressure on the ecological state of surface waters within the Mykolaiv region, namely the Southern Bug River, at 153 km, near the village of Oleksiivka (village of Pankratove), drinking water intake of the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk, Mykolaiv region (47°86′87″ N, 31°11′97″ E). A forecast of the level of anthropogenic load from key pollutants was carried out using regression equations, and projected levels of phosphate ions, ammonium ions, sulfate ions, chloride ions, BOD₅, and dissolved oxygen in the surface waters of the Southern Bug River were determined. Conclusions. The study presents the results of a comprehensive ecological assessment of the quality of surface waters of the Southern Bug River in the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk, Mykolaiv region, over the period of 2003–2024. The dynamics of key water quality indicators were studied, in particular the content of phosphate ions, ammonium, sulfate ions, chloride ions, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), and the level of dissolved oxygen. The obtained analysis results allow us to conclude that the aquatic system of the Southern Bug River in the area of Oleksiivka (Pankratove) has a stable biogenic-organic load, which intensified during 2020–2024. An increase in nitrogen, phosphates, surfactants, and herbicides indicates a systematic influence of domestic and agricultural pollution sources. The trends in COD/BOD₅, combined with a decrease in dissolved oxygen, indicate a decline in aeration potential and an increased risk of hypoxia. A forecast of the anthropogenic load level from key pollutants was carried out using regression equations, and projected levels of phosphate ions, ammonium ions, sulfate ions, chloride ions, BOD₅, and dissolved oxygen in the surface waters of the Southern Bug River were determined.Item Ecological Assessment of Surface Water Conditions of the Danube River(2025) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Menshov, Oleksandr; Korniichuk, Yuliia; Horoshkov, Stanislav; Ryshykov, IgorPurpose. To provide a comprehensive environmental assessment and forecasting of the condition of surface waters of the Danube River within the Ukrainian section (Reni – Izmail – Vylkove), with a focus on the dynamics of key hydrochemical indicators over the period 2010–2024. Special attention is given to the influence of anthropogenic factors, including intensive navigation, industrial pressure, and the environmental consequences of military actions, which have altered the hydrological regime and deteriorated water quality. Methods. System analysis, statistical data processing, distribution analysis, and regression modeling were employed to assess retrospective dynamics and predict future trends in water quality. The information was sourced from long-term monitoring data collected at observation stations in the cities of Kiliya, Vylkove, and the river’s mouth. Results. The analysis focused on six key water quality indicators: phosphates, ammonium, sulfates, chlorides, biochemical oxygen demand over five days (BOD₅), and dissolved oxygen concentration. Phosphate and ammonium compounds exhibited seasonal fluctuations, attributed to discharges of organic and agricultural origin. Sulfate concentrations were found to be highly variable, combining both natural and anthropogenic sources, while chloride levels remained stable with signs of chronic influence. The analysis of BOD₅ and dissolved oxygen indicators suggests a potential for self-purification, although certain periods revealed deterioration in oxygen balance, particularly due to localized organic overload and disrupted hydrodynamics. Developed regression models allowed the identification of relationships between hydrological changes, port activity intensity, and pollution levels.Conclusions. The main environmental issues of the lower Danube were identified as organic and mineral pollution, eutrophication, decreased oxygen levels, hydromorphological changes, and threats posed by armed conflict. Despite these challenges, the river retains a capacity for partial self-recovery, especially under reduced anthropogenic pressure. Restoring ecological balance will require the implementation of systematic monitoring, modernization of wastewater treatment facilities, effective pollution source management, and Ukraine’s active participation in international environmental regulatory mechanisms, such as the Danube Commission. The modeling results can be used to forecast water environment conditions in both peacetime development and post-war recovery scenarios.Item Research on the Impact of War on Protected Areas of Southern Ukraine(2025) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Menshov, Oleksandr; Korniichuk, Yuliia; Horoshkov, Stanislav; Holub, Oleksandr; Skrynchenko, KarinaPurpose. To conduct an integrated analysis of the dynamics and ecological consequences of wildfires on Biriuchyi Island (Azovo-Syvash National Nature Park) between 2014 and 2024 using satellite monitoring tools. The study aims to identify spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence, assess their impact on vegetation and fauna, and highlight the environmental threats exacerbated by the ongoing occupation and lack of fire management. Methods. The study utilized NASA FIRMS (MODIS and VIIRS sensors), Sentinel-2 data, Google Earth Engine, and weather archives (RP5) to detect and map fire anomalies. Temporal-spatial analysis was performed based on fire radiative power (FRP), thermal brightness, fire coordinates, and weather parameters. Multisource data were integrated to validate fire events, and Sentinel-based NDVI changes were analyzed to assess vegetation damage. Results.Two primary fire peaks were identified: June and August 2024. The highest FRP (35.15 MW) and temperature (367 K) were recorded on June 10. Fires exhibited clear diurnal patterns– higher intensity during the day and more detections at night. Vegetation loss and fire scars were confirmed via Sentinel imagery. Occupationrelated factors (lack of suppression, military activities) were linked to increased fire spread. Post-fire satellite data showed significant degradation of native vegetation and fragmentation of habitats for deer, amphibians, and migratory birds. Conclusions. The fires on Biriuchyi Island have caused severe disruption to ecosystems through soil erosion, vegetation loss, and trophic imbalance. Restoration requires urgent actions: wildlife population monitoring, reforestation with native species, erosion control, and regulation of ungulate density. The use of satellite tools proved essential for detecting small-scale fires and monitoring ecological dynamics in inaccessible territories. Without active intervention, cascading degradation is likely, including microclimatic shifts and invasion of alien species. A long-term management plan is needed to restore and protect this unique ecological area.