Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки

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https://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/handle/123456789/14654
"Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки" – рецензоване наукове фахове видання відкритого доступу, що публікує статті в галузі економіки. Журнал створено 1999 року Національним університетом "Києво-Могилянська академія". Журнал входить до переліку наукових фахових видань України, в яких можуть публікуватися результати дисертаційних робіт на здобуття наукових ступенів доктора і кандидата наук. У журналі "Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки" публікуються оригінальні статті, матеріали проблемного і дискусійного характеру, оригінальні теоретичні та емпіричні дослідження в галузі економічної теорії, маркетингу, менеджменту, бізнесу. Журнал виходить 1 раз на рік.

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Browsing Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки by Author "Hryhoriev, Hennadii"

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    Debt deflation theory and middle-income trap: system dynamics approach
    (2024) Hryhoriev, Hennadii
    The article analyzes the theoretical and practical aspects of the theory of the relationship between national debt and deflationary processes using the example of the impact of the economic recession in China on the decline in global economic growth, and determines the systemic effects of the national economy falling into the middle income debt trap and exiting it. With the help of simulation models, which are based on the methodology of system dynamics, the interrelationship of economic processes of global and national economies is presented. It was found that deflation leads to an increase in the price of the existing external and internal debt and inhibits economic growth and economic development of the national economy and is one of the forms of the country’s middle income trap. The use of the scenario approach made it possible to identify the basic options for the development of the world economy under the influence of negative economic phenomena at the national level and to develop appropriate recommendations for middle-income countries to achieve the goals of macroeconomic and financial stabilization with the appropriate access to the trajectory of new economic development.The study found that the factors of education, social and innovative development are of decisive importance in the country’s achievement of the goal of leaving the middle income trap. The economies of such countries as China are unable to independently overcome this trap without further involvement in global integration and trade processes, and at the same time they themselves form deflationary processes at the global level. In addition, the policy of economic and political semi-isolation leads to the destabilization of the existing world economic and financial systems.
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    Fiscal space, debt sustainability and the transition to innovative growth in Ukraine: system dynamics approach
    (2025) Hryhoriev, Hennadii
    The purpose of the article is to assess the unique characteristics of government sector debt by employing a system dynamics approach and providing the goodness-of-fit analysis during the war and post-war period in Ukraine. The research formulates a set of proposals for possible post-war period of economic and financial recovery in the context of the debt-to-GDP ratio, fiscal space stability with a transition to an innovation-driven growth model. We use system dynamics tools to analyze and verify data, particularly Stella Architect Software.The research results are the following: the article indicates the presence of an S-shaped growth pattern in national debt relative to GDP, which indicates the necessity for the government to implement the initiatives to start a debt-free economic growth policy to achieve the goal of long-run independent economic policy making via fiscal reforms, tax revenues optimization, and innovations to foster competitiveness mechanisms. The article proves that strategies implemented for debt restructuring can influence public finances, which subsequently impacts the overall financial standing and stability of the government. It is essential for governments to thoroughly evaluate their options and formulate comprehensive debt restructuring strategies that consider both immediate and long-term financial goals. Neglecting to tackle unsustainable debt levels may result in financial crises, the implementation of austerity measures, and adverse effects on social services and public welfare.We prove and conclude that public external debt, fiscal space, and total economic capacity, as the elements of government policy, based on a transition to an innovative growth model, are the core elements to promote economic stability and growth while managing the risks associated with public external debt and the limitations of fiscal capacity. The results of the research are useful for the national government of Ukraine to implement fiscal policy with the elements of debt sustainability and innovative development. The execution of these strategies in managing financial debt and fiscal matters is crucial and will be fulfilled in our further research
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    Sovereign debt and post-war Ukrainian economic growth – system dynamics approach
    (2023) Hryhoriev, Hennadii
    The aim of the article is to examine the post-war national economy, notably overburdened with significant war expenditures and the effects of sovereign debt restructuring in a wartime period. The research uses system dynamics modelling methods, operates with S-shaped growth, overshoot and collapse dynamic patterns. The oscillation patterns of behaviour have been used to demonstrate the scenario options of possible external debt minimization. The dynamic hypothesis about non-linear behaviour of post-war debt trajectory has revealed the intrinsic growth rate in debt-dependent economy and the inflection point of no return to stable economic growth without radical decision of sovereign debt cancellation. The direct consequence of a negative solution for debt cancellation would be the unpredictable, even chaotic fluctuations of national economic growth rate. Baseline simulation to prove the results of research has been provided. The embedded "dependent-economy" type of macrostructure does not allow to overcome the critical debt overhang level and needs a new national model with appropriate policy to stabilize the economy. Performance of post-war debt repayment depends mostly on an innovative fund, which can be created by export abilities in the framework of post-war recovery plan. The results of the research may be applied by national authorities responsible for macroeconomic debt policy. The obtained results of the study allow us to draw a conclusion about the impossibility of developing the national economy within the framework of the existing economic structure of the developing country. The debt trap, which cannot be eliminated, does not allow to develop the national innovative economy and ensure economic growth and development.