Modeling human social security during war

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dc.contributor.authorBazhenova, Olenaen_US
dc.contributor.authorVarnalii, Zahariien_US
dc.contributor.authorCheberyako, Oksanaen_US
dc.contributor.authorMykytiuk, Oksanaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-10T15:43:03Z
dc.date.available2025-02-10T15:43:03Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractThis paper explores the impact of economic and social policy on the life expectancy at birth as it determines the human social security in the country, reflecting the level of life support, well-being, social protection and self-preservation, as well as the level of education and self-development. We identified a certain “trap of social insecurity”, when a low level of income in the country leads to the degradation of human capital, a decrease in life expectancy due to the lack of adequate social protection that may ultimately lead to the slowdown in economic development. This mechanism of maintaining social insecurity significantly accelerates during military conflicts. From the cluster analysis, we can conclude that hybrid wars do not have a noticeable effect on the average life expectancy of the population. The empirical results of the panel VAR model showed slight response of life expectancy to economic and social policy shocks in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – countries that are the victims of either hybrid wars or full-scale hostilities on the territory of the former USSR. The most significant effect on life expectancy is exerted by the growth of gross domestic product per capita. Current health expenditure per capita shocks have a small positive effect on life expectancy in the short run. On the other hand, unemployment and the factor of hybrid wars and military conflicts have a slight negative impact in the short term. In the long run, all the above impacts are leveled off. At the same time, the results of decomposition of the variance of the forecast errors of life expectancy at birth showed that its volatility is largely explained by the inherent fluctuations of this indicator. The variation of gross domestic product per capita explains about 9% of the variation in life expectancy at birth in the selected countries, unemployment – slightly more than 2%.en_US
dc.identifier.citationModeling human social security during war / Olena Bazhenova, Zakharii Varnalii, Oksana Cheberyako, Oksana Mykytiuk // Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics. - 2023. - Issue 12. - P. 111-132. - https://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2023.111en_US
dc.identifier.issn2415-3516
dc.identifier.issn2306-3289
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.33111/nfmte.2023.111
dc.identifier.urihttps://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/handle/123456789/33541
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.relation.sourceNeuro-Fuzzy Modeling Techniques in Economics. - 2023. - Issue 12en_US
dc.statusfirst publisheden_US
dc.subjectsocial securityen_US
dc.subjecteconomic developmenten_US
dc.subjectlife expectancy at birthen_US
dc.subjectself-organizing mapen_US
dc.subjectcluster analysisen_US
dc.subjectpanel VAR modelen_US
dc.subjectarticleen_US
dc.titleModeling human social security during waren_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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